0x02d28914df13286b0eaa309d717c1e5d38bfbdc7
0x02d28914df13286b0eaa309d717c1e5d38bfbdc7
- Realised P&L
- $4.57
- Volume
- $409.01
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $4.90
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? · No | 0.670 | 0.981 | $1.46 | +$0.46 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of October 5 2026? · No | 0.730 | 1.000 | $1.37 | +$0.37 |
| Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5? · No | 0.730 | 0.780 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.775 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 9? · No | 0.850 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.63at 0.237Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$4.89at 0.254Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of July 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
- +$3.88at 0.340Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 11:55 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 03:53 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on October 9? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:45 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 19:45 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $360 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:44 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 18:34 | Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 18:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 09:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 01:40 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 17:33 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 18:56 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $800B and $900B on September 30? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 09:31 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in September? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 01:25 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 17:23 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.6099998597 | $1.00 |