VulcanDust
0x02d07568a173b384e0dd20ad303dfe81ec2eb6ab
- Realised P&L
- $-812.26
- Volume
- $26.5k
- Markets traded
- 69
- Open portfolio
- $126.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded69
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.327 | 0.175 | $80.18 | −$69.82 |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.225 | 0.105 | $46.69 | −$53.31 |
| Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.106 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$130.00 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$476.15at 0.230Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$177.27at 0.220Will the Director of Secret Service be fired/resign?
- +$174.78at 0.460US military action against Iran before July?
- +$172.96at 0.419Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$150.19at 0.189Will JD Vance win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-27 16:48 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1059999982 | $50.00 |
| 05-27 16:46 | Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | SELL | 0.9429969641 | $111.82 |
| 05-11 21:29 | Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? | BUY | 0.8432539677 | $100.00 |
| 05-11 17:43 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2199999968 | $50.00 |
| 05-11 17:43 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.3230650988 | $50.00 |
| 05-10 18:53 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2899999981 | $100.00 |
| 05-10 17:26 | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.2899999956 | $30.00 |
| 05-10 00:00 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.2299999968 | $50.00 |
| 05-09 23:58 | Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.3296073355 | $100.00 |
| 03-25 22:04 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $100.00 |
| 12-19 16:16 | Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? | BUY | 0.0995398769 | $20.00 |
| 12-19 16:16 | Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? | BUY | 0.032 | $20.00 |
| 12-19 16:08 | TikTok sale announced in 2025? | SELL | 0.7531973115 | $80.13 |
| 12-10 17:37 | Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? | BUY | 0.3299999922 | $20.00 |
| 12-10 17:36 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $20.25 |