Patz3
0x0292664333884fe5c24b30f840b322fd1d284211
- Realised P&L
- $-17.2k
- Volume
- $2.74M
- Markets traded
- 73
- Open portfolio
- $11.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded73
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.011 | $7.8k | −$1.4k |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.582 | 0.515 | $2.6k | −$339.38 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.551 | 0.515 | $1.1k | −$76.46 |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.035 | $182.24 | +$8.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.8kat 0.550Spread: Lions (-3.5)
- +$5.5kat 0.402Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference?
- +$4.1kat 0.705Buccaneers vs. Lions
- +$3.4kat 0.360Thunder vs. Nuggets
- +$3.2kat 0.330Cavaliers vs. Pacers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 16:02 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $2.0k |
| 06-11 17:21 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.3k |
| 05-14 15:12 | Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? | BUY | 0.033 | $130.86 |
| 04-09 19:31 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.018 | $67.10 |
| 04-09 19:29 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.011 | $1.10 |
| 04-09 19:29 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.01 | $400.00 |
| 04-09 19:28 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.01 | $500.00 |
| 04-09 19:28 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.01 | $500.00 |
| 04-09 19:26 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.011 | $3.63 |
| 04-09 19:24 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.011 | $279.38 |
| 04-07 20:20 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.011 | $1.9k |
| 04-07 20:20 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.012 | $172.79 |
| 04-06 20:50 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.013 | $52.67 |
| 04-01 15:00 | Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.019 | $9.36 |
| 04-01 15:00 | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.37 | $814.00 |