0x027f1a0efbf588f5bee703ade1156b08ba153cb0
- Realised P&L
- $-25.79
- Volume
- $784.73
- Markets traded
- 131
- Open portfolio
- $5.42
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded131
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes? · No | 0.490 | 0.995 | $2.03 | +$1.03 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.750 | $1.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.295 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
| Will Warsh say "Software" during September Press Conference? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.245 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.16at 0.220Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?
- +$6.68at 0.258Will Bernie say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" in Maine?
- +$6.01at 0.376Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$5.30at 0.278Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18?
- +$5.28at 0.460Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-22 09:05 | Will Bernie say "Revolution" or "Revolutionary" in Maine? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.25 |
| 05-22 09:00 | Will Bernie say "Greed" or "Greedy" in Maine? | BUY | 0.28 | $2.24 |
| 05-22 08:55 | Will Bernie say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" in Maine? | BUY | 0.2999999022 | $1.84 |
| 05-22 08:45 | Will Trump attend his son's wedding? | BUY | 0.3599998874 | $1.79 |
| 05-19 08:45 | Will Trump say "Hell" during Coast Guard event? | BUY | 0.42 | $2.10 |
| 05-19 08:40 | Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Coast Guard event? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 05-13 08:48 | Will Trump say "North Korea" this week? | BUY | 0.6499999705 | $2.20 |
| 05-13 08:37 | Will Trump say "Blackwell" this week? | BUY | 0.3499998833 | $1.80 |
| 05-13 00:08 | Will Trump say "Rare earth" or "Mineral" this week? | BUY | 0.3299999307 | $2.19 |
| 05-11 17:19 | Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.60 |
| 05-11 16:11 | Will the Pheu Thai Party (PT) win 110 or more seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.78 |
| 05-11 16:11 | Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | SELL | 0.995 | $5.12 |
| 05-06 11:02 | Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections? | BUY | 0.3799999341 | $1.96 |
| 04-29 18:20 | Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? (April 27 - May 3) | BUY | 0.0291646386 | $2.38 |
| 04-29 18:00 | Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (April 27 - May 3) | BUY | 0.28 | $2.31 |