aarson
0x0258ae2c0ca6c6890a6159e197df9403cb2f13bf
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $249.9k
- Markets traded
- 1,562
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,562
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration11.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 September 14-20? · No | 0.796 | 0.999 | $309.54 | +$62.64 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 September 14-20? · No | 0.931 | 0.999 | $299.70 | +$20.40 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in September? · No | 0.850 | 0.977 | $293.10 | +$38.10 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? · No | 0.710 | 0.966 | $289.64 | +$76.65 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September? · No | 0.847 | 0.850 | $255.00 | +$1.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September? · No | 0.901 | 0.955 | $190.90 | +$10.70 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September? · No | 0.780 | 0.765 | $153.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? · No | 0.880 | 0.924 | $92.40 | +$4.40 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.495 | $54.45 | +$29.15 |
| Will XRP reach $1.50 September 14-20? · No | 0.839 | 0.583 | $53.01 | −$23.34 |
| Will Solana reach $120 September 14-20? · No | 0.847 | 0.489 | $48.90 | −$35.80 |
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $60 | 0.950 | 0.310 | $31.05 | −$63.95 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.217Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$551.40at 0.592Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?
- +$513.52at 0.313Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?
- +$435.00at 0.420Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?
- +$353.40at 0.327Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 01:00 | Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) | BUY | 0.45 | $9.00 |
| 09-19 01:00 | San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.27 | $10.80 |
| 09-19 00:58 | Will Solana reach $120 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.847 | $60.98 |
| 09-16 04:19 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.8 | $160.00 |
| 09-16 04:18 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.79 | $27.65 |
| 09-12 04:45 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.86 | $172.00 |
| 09-10 00:29 | Patriots vs. Seahawks | BUY | 0.41 | $20.50 |
| 09-10 00:29 | Patriots vs. Seahawks | BUY | 0.41 | $41.00 |
| 09-10 00:19 | Spread: Seahawks (-2.5) | BUY | 0.57 | $57.00 |
| 09-08 22:22 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.74 | $222.00 |
| 09-08 06:08 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.64 | $64.00 |
| 09-08 06:06 | Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 09-08 06:06 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.62 | $62.00 |
| 09-08 06:04 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $183 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $66.00 |
| 09-08 00:13 | Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BUY | 0.63 | $126.00 |