aarson
0x0258ae2c0ca6c6890a6159e197df9403cb2f13bf
- Realised P&L
- $2.5k
- Volume
- $235.6k
- Markets traded
- 1,484
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,484
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration7.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will XRP reach $1.40 in August? · No | 0.946 | 0.943 | $565.50 | −$2.10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.865 | $207.60 | +$46.80 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,100 August 3-9? · No | 0.938 | 0.971 | $194.20 | +$6.60 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.900 | 0.925 | $185.00 | +$5.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 3-9? · No | 0.610 | 0.635 | $126.99 | +$5.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.440 | $87.99 | −$40.00 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? · Yes | 0.694 | 0.824 | $82.74 | +$13.02 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.820 | 0.825 | $82.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $60 | 0.950 | 0.770 | $77.05 | −$17.95 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.830 | $30.44 | +$2.93 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.217Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?
- +$551.40at 0.592Will XRP reach $4.0 in July?
- +$513.52at 0.313Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?
- +$435.00at 0.420Will Bitcoin dip to $111K in August?
- +$353.40at 0.327Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on February 2?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 06:07 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 07-29 06:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.226 | $51.98 |
| 07-28 06:52 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $112.50 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $180.00 |
| 07-28 06:46 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $350 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $36.18 |
| 07-28 06:43 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $38.27 |
| 07-28 06:35 | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 27-August 2? | BUY | 0.89 | $89.00 |
| 07-28 06:32 | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July? | BUY | 0.76 | $228.00 |
| 07-28 06:32 | Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July? | BUY | 0.95 | $7.60 |
| 07-28 06:29 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $4.77 |
| 07-28 06:29 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $32.19 |
| 07-28 06:28 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July? | BUY | 0.969 | $38.76 |
| 07-28 06:27 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $58.10 |
| 07-28 06:27 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $33.21 |
| 07-28 06:26 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of July 27 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $18.20 |
| 07-20 06:24 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $900 Week of July 20 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $56.70 |