PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

penize

0x02306d236ff003463324af459284523b191645b2

Realised P&L
$-181.52
Volume
$12.7k
Markets traded
40
Open portfolio
$44.87

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded40
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample34 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.2%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration84.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1320.032$37.86−$121.14
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.5700.045$3.16−$36.84
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? · Yes0.3010.145$2.41−$2.59
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? · Yes0.2610.075$1.45−$3.55
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? · Yes0.1900.000$0.00−$4.00
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? · Yes0.1000.000$0.00−$6.00
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? · Yes0.1190.000$0.00−$3.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 14:25Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.91$23.48
05-14 10:35Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?SELL0.89$22.25
05-14 10:35Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?SELL0.86$25.29
05-14 10:34Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?SELL0.9687575$89.13
05-08 07:54Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ETSELL0.23$2.88
05-08 07:50Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ETBUY0.4$5.00
05-08 07:47Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ETBUY0.5$5.00
05-08 07:46Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ETBUY0.5699999966$10.00
05-08 07:46Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?BUY0.5099999956$15.00
05-06 09:53Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?SELL0.73$5.84
05-04 18:18Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?SELL0.9958818$49.79
04-22 20:20Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?BUY0.4499905147$19.00
04-22 20:20Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?SELL0.6$15.00
04-22 20:19U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?SELL0.23$4.26
04-22 20:18Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?BUY0.4399999839$12.00