penize
0x02306d236ff003463324af459284523b191645b2
- Realised P&L
- $-181.52
- Volume
- $12.7k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $44.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.132 | 0.032 | $37.86 | −$121.14 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.045 | $3.16 | −$36.84 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027? · Yes | 0.301 | 0.145 | $2.41 | −$2.59 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Taiwan" before 2027? · Yes | 0.261 | 0.075 | $1.45 | −$3.55 |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
| Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.26at 0.305Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$58.75at 0.360Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?
- +$40.93at 0.423Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
- +$38.78at 0.490Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
- +$38.50at 0.446Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 14:25 | Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $23.48 |
| 05-14 10:35 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $22.25 |
| 05-14 10:35 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $25.29 |
| 05-14 10:34 | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | SELL | 0.9687575 | $89.13 |
| 05-08 07:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | SELL | 0.23 | $2.88 |
| 05-08 07:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $5.00 |
| 05-08 07:47 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 05-08 07:46 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET | BUY | 0.5699999966 | $10.00 |
| 05-08 07:46 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.5099999956 | $15.00 |
| 05-06 09:53 | Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $5.84 |
| 05-04 18:18 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | SELL | 0.9958818 | $49.79 |
| 04-22 20:20 | Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | BUY | 0.4499905147 | $19.00 |
| 04-22 20:20 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $15.00 |
| 04-22 20:19 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? | SELL | 0.23 | $4.26 |
| 04-22 20:18 | Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? | BUY | 0.4399999839 | $12.00 |