0x022C64C0C56Ef5789eF985DAE34A4f9A7E934873-1766949908478
0x022c64c0c56ef5789ef985dae34a4f9a7e934873
- Realised P&L
- $-1.2k
- Volume
- $221.5k
- Markets traded
- 159
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded159
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · Yes | 0.641 | 0.714 | $714.00 | +$72.81 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.844 | 0.860 | $429.75 | +$7.75 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.760 | 0.815 | $326.00 | +$22.00 |
| Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.820 | $246.00 | +$90.00 |
| Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.160 | $160.00 | −$9.91 |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.045 | $45.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.019 | $3.90 | −$5.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$352.76at 0.927Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
- +$288.03at 0.850US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
- +$210.37at 0.869Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$190.00at 0.905Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
- +$168.90at 0.867Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 10:01 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.988041535 | $2.0k |
| 10-13 16:58 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | SELL | 0.1270310203 | $42.34 |
| 10-13 15:43 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? | SELL | 0.091753 | $18.35 |
| 10-13 14:57 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? | BUY | 0.12518 | $12.52 |
| 10-12 06:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $1.9k |
| 10-12 06:48 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $210.00 |
| 10-11 16:08 | Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | SELL | 0.1593142 | $159.31 |
| 10-11 09:02 | Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? | BUY | 0.05 | $50.00 |
| 10-11 08:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.9k |
| 10-08 13:49 | Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? | BUY | 0.16991315 | $339.83 |
| 10-08 10:50 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? | BUY | 0.09427 | $9.43 |
| 10-07 06:37 | Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31? | SELL | 0.8792667 | $175.85 |
| 10-06 06:36 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? | BUY | 0.1499999997 | $50.00 |
| 10-05 18:35 | Romanian PM Bolojan out by October 31? | BUY | 0.52 | $156.00 |
| 10-05 18:29 | Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? | SELL | 0.0037219555 | $1.84 |