xiaoxiao2322
0x0213b7f5e92fcd0e2e556664513eec6261f131a8
- Realised P&L
- $-217.69
- Volume
- $44.1k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $34.75
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.008 | $34.75 | −$30.41 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$196.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$43.37at 0.285Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$11.94at 0.630Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
- +$6.51at 0.821Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$0.00at 0.945Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$-0.60at 0.957Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 06:36 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.956 | $578.38 |
| 07-10 02:35 | Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.957 | $578.99 |
| 06-22 03:23 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.85 | $536.35 |
| 06-10 06:23 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $390.40 |
| 06-02 12:39 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.007 | $196.00 |
| 06-02 11:23 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $405.04 |
| 04-28 03:03 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.8209999998 | $411.32 |
| 03-23 07:09 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY | 0.63 | $188.04 |
| 03-12 06:27 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.945 | $461.16 |
| 03-12 06:06 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.945 | $461.16 |