0x02116ef5714de504feaf9f0b4fe43165669ed54a
0x02116ef5714de504feaf9f0b4fe43165669ed54a
- Realised P&L
- $-12.26
- Volume
- $216.61
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $1.39
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? · Yes | 0.720 | 1.000 | $1.39 | +$0.39 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.54at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.20at 0.320Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
- +$2.04at 0.500Will Warsh say "2008" or "Financial Crisis" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
- +$1.91at 0.351Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?
- +$1.79at 0.402Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-27 23:24 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 26? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 04:16 | Coca-Cola (KO) Q3 organic revenue (non-GAAP) growth 3.5% to 5%? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 20:16 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:14 | Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 03:49 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.7909999842 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 19:48 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 11:47 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 01:53 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 17:31 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.3189999225 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 20:36 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3089999957 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 20:16 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 12:04 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $175 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 04:03 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 19:58 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998592 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 22:59 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |