MrGrinche
0x020be1afa3227a565cdf01a538601bb8cb8a132e
- Realised P&L
- $-920.84
- Volume
- $20.0k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $244.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.040 | $244.80 | −$430.63 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$118.87 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before July? · Yes | 0.748 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$80.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? · Yes | 0.174 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva · Maja Chwalinska | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.33 |
| Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$341.38at 0.540Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?
- +$35.80at 0.867Iran Nuke in 2024?
- +$27.30at 0.790Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?
- +$18.00at 0.880Will Biden finish his term?
- +$12.00at 0.920Macron out as president of France in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 07:06 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $28.60 |
| 09-08 07:01 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1162651457 | $157.37 |
| 09-08 06:46 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1099678929 | $307.91 |
| 09-08 06:44 | Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $140.00 |
| 06-07 13:00 | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.1831859213 | $250.00 |
| 06-07 12:57 | Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.1822230006 | $250.00 |
| 06-06 13:59 | Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva | BUY | 0.2099999861 | $10.00 |
| 04-15 17:18 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.01233334 | $12.33 |
| 04-15 17:17 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.012 | $20.00 |
| 11-18 18:49 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $60.00 |
| 11-18 18:40 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.6675008759 | $100.00 |
| 11-18 18:00 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.4899999962 | $41.00 |
| 11-18 17:57 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.4891303257 | $200.00 |
| 08-13 03:59 | Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? | BUY | 0.79 | $102.70 |
| 04-05 19:34 | Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.1119999059 | $1.00 |