0x02096e05e0d58d0b3d187f403e3151e3acd0fec4
0x02096e05e0d58d0b3d187f403e3151e3acd0fec4
- Realised P&L
- $-4.02
- Volume
- $186.82
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $3.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2? · Up | 0.760 | 0.765 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.770 | $1.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.465 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.81at 0.288Will Warsh say "Anchor" or "Anchored" during September Press Conference?
- +$3.01at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?
- +$2.04at 0.430Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $120 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$1.93at 0.389S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$1.59at 0.490Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 7 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 03:22 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 2? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 19:10 | Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $1.00 |
| 11-01 08:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-22 12:25 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 01:08 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 15:46 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:36 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 11:08 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4499998425 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 02:35 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $990 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 18:26 | Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 21:48 | Will Bank of America (BAC) Q3 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 11:49 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 22:21 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,050 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.649999805 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 00:58 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.69999972 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 16:06 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |