0x02096e05e0d58d0b3d187f403e3151e3acd0fec4
- Realised P&L
- $-5.42
- Volume
- $123.76
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $2.22
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.215 | $1.19 | −$0.31 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? · Down | 0.380 | 0.325 | $1.03 | −$0.17 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · No | 0.660 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.01at 0.339SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 20?
- +$2.04at 0.430Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $120 Week of August 31 2026?
- +$1.59at 0.490Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 7 2026?
- +$1.20at 0.560SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 19?
- +$1.20at 0.560Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 07:46 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.3799999683 | $1.20 |
| 09-13 23:04 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $345 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.50 |
| 09-08 00:56 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.50 |
| 09-07 11:07 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18? | BUY | 0.7199999808 | $1.50 |
| 09-03 23:31 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $120 Week of August 31 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999048 | $1.50 |
| 09-03 15:08 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6599999296 | $1.50 |
| 08-30 13:49 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999141 | $1.50 |
| 08-29 17:38 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999637 | $1.50 |
| 08-29 09:36 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5849999668 | $1.50 |
| 08-29 00:58 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998922 | $1.50 |
| 08-28 04:57 | Will Warsh say "Task Force" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28? | BUY | 0.5499999817 | $1.50 |
| 08-27 08:57 | Will Trump say "Oil," "Gas," or "Gasoline" during remarks at NASA? | BUY | 0.7799999168 | $1.50 |
| 08-27 00:55 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on August 27? | BUY | 0.7899999631 | $1.50 |
| 08-26 16:03 | Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2599999064 | $1.50 |
| 08-26 08:01 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August? | BUY | 0.77999974 | $1.50 |