lucianoprado
0x01d45bfdb9519d50f357fab8c9658922719fc194
- Realised P&L
- $-80.88
- Volume
- $11.4k
- Markets traded
- 902
- Open portfolio
- $23.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded902
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$71.98at 0.479Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET
- +$59.12at 0.526Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
- +$53.53at 0.526Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
- +$30.33at 0.526Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
- +$27.62at 0.521Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-06 01:20 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $1.45 |
| 09-06 01:19 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.59 |
| 05-18 21:18 | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL | 0.94 | $23.64 |
| 05-13 21:02 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1089999821 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 21:02 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1085116049 | $40.00 |
| 05-13 21:01 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.2670384924 | $26.64 |
| 05-13 20:58 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.1114907613 | $20.00 |
| 04-12 16:02 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.171 | $1.07 |
| 04-02 03:07 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET | BUY | 0.48 | $2.78 |
| 04-02 03:05 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $0.93 |
| 04-02 02:57 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET | BUY | 0.4899999951 | $2.78 |
| 04-02 02:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $0.92 |
| 04-01 01:32 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.023999977 | $1.00 |
| 04-01 01:12 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |
| 04-01 01:10 | Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.025 | $10.00 |