0x01cc9de18f2a64186a073e83d759007c690a9e42
- Realised P&L
- $2.21
- Volume
- $544.00
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $32.15
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration88.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration23.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.935 | $7.48 | +$0.92 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? · No | 0.955 | 0.983 | $6.88 | +$0.20 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.975 | $4.87 | +$0.37 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.925 | $4.63 | +$0.07 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · No | 0.910 | 0.895 | $4.47 | −$0.07 |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.095 | $2.09 | −$1.65 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? · Yes | 0.137 | 0.055 | $1.10 | −$1.64 |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.105 | $0.63 | −$0.69 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.25at 0.500Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$0.46at 0.102Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?
- +$0.16at 0.090U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.10at 0.066Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
- +$0.06at 0.917Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 06:31 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.32 |
| 07-11 17:56 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 07-04 13:17 | Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $6.68 |
| 07-02 07:11 | Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | BUY | 0.91 | $4.55 |
| 06-29 05:52 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.69 |
| 06-20 04:10 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.062 | $1.24 |
| 06-13 17:24 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $2.10 |
| 06-13 00:05 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $5.81 |
| 06-10 20:07 | Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | BUY | 0.071 | $1.42 |
| 06-08 05:02 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.42 |
| 06-06 01:45 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.098 | $1.08 |
| 06-03 05:06 | Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.50 |
| 05-22 03:30 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $11.04 |
| 05-22 03:29 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.44 |
| 05-22 03:29 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.919 | $8.27 |