topmoon
0x01a5fb1fa13f378138a31382c8364b5d4e2b0e36
- Realised P&L
- $-699.92
- Volume
- $664.3k
- Markets traded
- 728
- Open portfolio
- $413.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded728
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.566Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$814.58at 0.781France vs. Morocco: Team to Advance
- +$603.27at 0.870Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$550.72at 0.637Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$531.13at 0.706Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 23:34 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 17? | SELL | 0.85 | $89.25 |
| 10-16 12:12 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.81 | $32.40 |
| 10-16 11:59 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 10-16 11:01 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on October 17? | SELL | 0.92 | $32.43 |
| 10-16 10:40 | Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.79 | $35.55 |
| 10-16 09:37 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.9 | $49.50 |
| 10-16 09:06 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.86 | $22.57 |
| 10-16 09:05 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.85 | $5.67 |
| 10-16 08:48 | Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on October 17? | BUY | 0.85 | $36.89 |
| 10-16 06:34 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 16? | SELL | 0.57 | $6.22 |
| 10-16 06:30 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 16? | SELL | 0.32 | $4.16 |
| 10-16 06:29 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 16? | SELL | 0.38 | $3.50 |
| 10-16 06:20 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 16? | BUY | 0.96 | $14.40 |
| 10-16 06:19 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 16? | BUY | 0.92 | $46.00 |
| 10-16 06:18 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 16? | BUY | 0.91 | $45.63 |