yoderwalter
0x017e514865cf8932f83cc271ada5461d4e33493d
- Realised P&L
- $105.45
- Volume
- $10.9k
- Markets traded
- 83
- Open portfolio
- $93.27
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded83
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.980 | $27.16 | +$10.25 |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.585 | $22.15 | +$1.33 |
| Will Luca Niculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · Yes | 0.669 | 0.984 | $18.07 | +$5.78 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $224 in October? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.545 | $15.03 | −$5.65 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on October 20? · No | 0.740 | 0.565 | $10.87 | −$3.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.34at 0.560Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$23.52at 0.730Google Maps renames it "Gulf of America" before March?
- +$6.93at 0.650Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?
- +$4.77at 0.830Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 29, 2026?
- +$4.08at 0.763Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 13?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 19:30 | Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 13? | BUY | 0.75 | $12.92 |
| 01-31 13:53 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $7.76 |
| 01-30 16:36 | Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.24 |
| 01-30 15:04 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9979999327 | $12.76 |
| 01-30 14:12 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999421 | $8.50 |
| 01-30 12:29 | Will Solana dip to $70 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $40.34 |
| 12-30 11:21 | Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.92 |
| 12-30 08:25 | Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? | BUY | 0.9989999461 | $14.22 |
| 12-29 23:01 | Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $12.78 |
| 12-29 21:54 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999881 | $38.31 |
| 10-30 20:55 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.988 | $20.42 |
| 10-30 18:49 | Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.11 |
| 09-29 12:40 | Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao by September 30? | BUY | 0.9949999262 | $12.54 |
| 09-29 02:30 | Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $18.33 |
| 09-29 00:28 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | BUY | 0.9990000002 | $12.99 |