0x0165809f385ab863734db4f9312a9a2caad715b5
- Realised P&L
- $344.51
- Volume
- $7.0k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.182 | 0.245 | $1.5k | +$374.63 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.961 | $82.68 | +$14.68 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.021 | $12.80 | −$111.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.59at 0.630Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$0.68at 0.880Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February?
- +$-5.00at 0.838Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-26 14:45 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.16 | $133.57 |
| 05-25 21:13 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.179999999 | $144.38 |
| 05-23 12:39 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1899999995 | $299.98 |
| 05-08 09:28 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1899999992 | $186.31 |
| 04-14 22:18 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL | 0.989 | $194.45 |
| 03-31 21:39 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2099999984 | $92.90 |
| 03-31 21:29 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2025105077 | $30.96 |
| 03-31 19:55 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY | 0.6299999982 | $123.87 |
| 03-15 20:06 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.1932238452 | $250.23 |
| 03-01 20:34 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.15 | $69.00 |
| 02-01 21:58 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in February? | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 02-01 14:43 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999985 | $68.00 |
| 02-01 10:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 1? | BUY | 0.8379999886 | $5.00 |