badonde1
0x015ec33cce2b3c31e925d9cbfb582c178c7babb0
- Realised P&L
- $1.4k
- Volume
- $18.5k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration58.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.314 | 0.265 | $1.3k | −$235.89 |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.285 | $271.43 | −$61.90 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax? · Yes | 0.561 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$893.00at 0.697Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$489.47at 0.380US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
- +$144.85at 0.799Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-21 19:38 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.3499999998 | $333.33 |
| 09-21 08:48 | Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax? | BUY | 0.5610629537 | $150.00 |
| 09-17 14:09 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4730555291 | $500.00 |
| 09-17 07:58 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999996 | $300.00 |
| 09-17 07:57 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | BUY | 0.3640943172 | $500.00 |
| 09-10 09:01 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.269305614 | $1.0k |
| 05-28 07:33 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7097945224 | $1.0k |
| 05-12 17:51 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7146376684 | $1.1k |
| 05-11 13:23 | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.668077153 | $2.0k |
| 09-03 19:13 | Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? | SELL | 0.992 | $743.21 |
| 08-18 14:07 | Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? | BUY | 0.7986652429 | $598.36 |