shapool
0x015923d3bdc6a6fa5917718d91147447e5604f56
- Realised P&L
- $1.7k
- Volume
- $76.8k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $315.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? · No | 0.340 | 0.415 | $124.50 | +$22.50 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.306 | 0.298 | $111.60 | −$3.00 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.306 | 0.690 | $79.34 | +$44.18 |
| US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? · No | 0.914 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$371.13 |
| Will Paradex launch a token by April 30 2026? · No | 0.086 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$54.21 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 31? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.64 |
| Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026? · No | 0.276 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$37.28 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.829 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026? · No | 0.932 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.99 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.6kat 0.014Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
- +$905.62at 0.550Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?
- +$321.10at 0.147Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?
- +$269.03at 0.598Nothing Ever Happens: Airdrops Edition
- +$224.03at 0.884Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 11:49 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.3059999918 | $1.42 |
| 09-17 11:45 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.306 | $113.17 |
| 09-17 11:42 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $21.00 |
| 09-17 11:38 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $77.00 |
| 09-17 11:36 | Papertrade FDV above $25M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.34 | $102.00 |
| 09-17 11:35 | Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? | SELL | 0.983 | $43.10 |
| 09-17 11:35 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $87.41 |
| 05-03 14:32 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.53 | $47.18 |
| 05-03 14:28 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $37.64 |
| 05-03 14:27 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $8.57 |
| 05-03 14:26 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3 | $21.43 |
| 05-03 14:26 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $8.74 |
| 04-26 10:19 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5399999992 | $70.83 |
| 04-26 10:05 | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.94 | $6.55 |
| 04-26 10:04 | Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026? | SELL | 0.8534945522 | $64.23 |