0x0150619eAEA487D52E3afC66Ad7c45BAA7Ca3677-1780164483229
0x0150619eaea487d52e3afc66ad7c45baa7ca3677
- Realised P&L
- $-1.11
- Volume
- $17.8k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $0.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)31.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.010 | $0.20 | −$3.80 |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$30.73at 0.643Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$22.36at 0.232Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$18.64at 0.152Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$9.46at 0.012Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.55at 0.062Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 20:38 | Will Seoul have less than 20mm of precipitation in October? | SELL | 0.75 | $15.00 |
| 07-19 21:50 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.932 | $7.37 |
| 07-19 20:58 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6319999858 | $5.00 |
| 07-16 16:46 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.416 | $20.45 |
| 07-15 20:53 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.018 | $0.92 |
| 07-15 20:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2269998422 | $1.00 |
| 07-15 20:50 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1919826936 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 20:50 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2249999674 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 20:49 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2219999706 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 20:49 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1989999692 | $5.00 |
| 07-15 20:47 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.196 | $4.29 |
| 07-15 20:20 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.136999962 | $3.00 |
| 07-14 20:45 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.018 | $0.74 |
| 07-14 20:32 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0469999569 | $1.00 |
| 07-14 19:25 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2539999669 | $5.00 |