0x014f47d75443D8821e5854FCef7aF3c778a942d9-1780677295309
0x014f47d75443d8821e5854fcef7af3c778a942d9
- Realised P&L
- $72.04
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $118.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.635 | $73.66 | +$1.74 |
| Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.340 | $34.00 | +$7.00 |
| Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? · Yes | 0.348 | 0.205 | $11.77 | −$8.23 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.329 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$65.80 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.228 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.08 |
| Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-08-07? · Yes | 0.569 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$110.14at 0.579Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$58.97at 0.629Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
- +$32.00at 0.680Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-07-24?
- +$4.80at 0.167Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 17:34 | Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-08-07? | BUY | 0.5688622684 | $30.00 |
| 07-24 22:58 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.62 | $71.92 |
| 07-24 22:53 | Will Club Universitario de Deportes win on 2026-07-24? | BUY | 0.68 | $67.99 |
| 07-21 15:01 | Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? | BUY | 0.3483123257 | $20.00 |
| 07-15 16:26 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.582 | $36.68 |
| 07-15 16:24 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.191 | $38.20 |
| 07-15 16:24 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.228 | $39.08 |
| 07-14 22:02 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.582 | $58.20 |
| 07-14 21:17 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.573 | $56.35 |
| 07-06 16:40 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.329 | $65.80 |
| 07-06 16:38 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.167 | $33.40 |
| 06-07 01:10 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.67 | $12.73 |
| 06-05 18:15 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.63 | $31.50 |