0x0145429ab49444691736bb7dcc246a7055989733
0x0145429ab49444691736bb7dcc246a7055989733
- Realised P&L
- $-15.90
- Volume
- $219.02
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $0.57
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.235 | $0.57 | −$0.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.82at 0.351Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$2.30at 0.470Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%?
- +$2.19at 0.701Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.490Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
- +$1.83at 0.522Will France win on 2026-07-18?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 17:24 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:07 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 08:00 | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-17 23:41 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 00:50 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 15:39 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 06:33 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 22:30 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-07 00:30 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999163 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 16:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 08:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999896 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 00:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 16:27 | Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 08:26 | Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:20 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |