0x011dEF4A859CFbc930991ab4f42c9598A19ea1AF-1767783251512
0x011def4a859cfbc930991ab4f42c9598a19ea1af
- Realised P&L
- $19.08
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 64
- Open portfolio
- $6.53
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded64
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · No | 0.470 | 0.525 | $5.24 | +$0.55 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? · No | 0.487 | 0.160 | $1.28 | −$2.62 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 18? · Up | 0.620 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$6.20 |
| European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.20 |
| Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.019 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.77 |
| Trump out as President by June 30? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$46.50at 0.070Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$14.06at 0.354Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (January 25)
- +$5.82at 0.335US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
- +$5.20at 0.120Will Trump say "Greenland" during Iowa speech?
- +$4.31at 0.004Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-09 09:28 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 04-26 15:06 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.487 | $3.90 |
| 04-25 06:00 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $8.67 |
| 04-20 21:13 | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $9.97 |
| 04-01 14:03 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.88 |
| 03-31 10:47 | Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? | SELL | 0.00111252 | $0.28 |
| 03-27 21:34 | Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.02 |
| 03-26 20:45 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | SELL | 0.08 | $2.40 |
| 03-14 13:12 | Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? | SELL | 0.0136772 | $1.37 |
| 03-07 19:01 | Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by March 31? | SELL | 0.0099263077 | $1.29 |
| 01-31 20:02 | Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $6.10 |
| 01-30 15:09 | Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Fed chair announcement? | SELL | 0.71 | $3.55 |
| 01-30 15:04 | Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Fed chair announcement? | BUY | 0.8 | $4.00 |
| 01-27 22:38 | Will Trump say "Hog" during Iowa speech? | SELL | 0.26 | $6.50 |
| 01-22 10:44 | Will Zelenskyy wear a suit and tie at the World Economic Forum? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.87 |