solar-flare26
0x011b4e4b33e979a16790f1f41af3adf4e8b60d7a
- Realised P&L
- $-51.78
- Volume
- $572.27
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $21.42
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration95.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.445 | $20.54 | −$9.46 |
| Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.115 | $0.88 | −$4.12 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.09at 0.845Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$18.57at 0.350US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
- +$14.33at 0.739Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$4.08at 0.832Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$2.70at 0.653Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 15:50 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5299999883 | $20.00 |
| 08-05 15:50 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.8258706143 | $20.00 |
| 08-05 15:49 | Will Thom Tillis vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act? | BUY | 0.6499999675 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 15:48 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? | BUY | 0.6435642456 | $5.00 |
| 08-05 15:48 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.3499999842 | $10.00 |
| 08-05 15:47 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6499999946 | $30.00 |
| 07-27 14:26 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7289999835 | $40.00 |
| 07-27 14:01 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | SELL | 0.71 | $6.96 |
| 07-27 14:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | BUY | 0.5099999796 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 13:58 | Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7989999926 | $15.00 |
| 07-27 13:57 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.5399999986 | $15.00 |
| 07-27 13:56 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $100.00 |
| 06-08 10:01 | Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8399999969 | $120.00 |