leajun
0x010295719d5e38c9061ed98f7c6f494f446b32af
- Realised P&L
- $-2.9k
- Volume
- $225.7k
- Markets traded
- 531
- Open portfolio
- $23.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded531
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$195.30at 0.249Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1
- +$159.01at 0.600Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?
- +$69.20at 0.912Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?
- +$64.64at 0.626Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
- +$36.19at 0.700Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 23:48 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7599998541 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 23:48 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.1359223077 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 23:48 | Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.2549999766 | $6.00 |
| 06-13 09:08 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1426016734 | $30.34 |
| 06-07 10:42 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.1399376293 | $30.45 |
| 06-07 10:42 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $11.05 |
| 06-01 11:32 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999878 | $10.00 |
| 06-01 11:31 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.1589999977 | $50.00 |
| 05-18 21:58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.605734 | $60.57 |
| 05-18 21:58 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $249.00 |
| 05-18 09:21 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.928 | $185.60 |
| 05-18 09:21 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.62 | $247.99 |
| 05-18 09:21 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.346025 | $69.21 |
| 05-17 07:13 | Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 | SELL | 0.68 | $48.57 |
| 05-17 07:11 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.66 | $264.00 |