donald98
0x003622dfc18bae8a30e3c1b4fc423dc2078239e2
- Realised P&L
- $-4.9k
- Volume
- $6.8k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $25.79
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-72.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration91.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 3? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.845 | $15.93 | +$0.09 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on October 1? · No | 0.560 | 0.620 | $9.86 | +$0.95 |
| Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week? · No | 0.890 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$131.67at 0.404Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
- +$52.02at 0.580Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$10.36at 0.590Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
- +$2.33at 0.580Bitcoin all time high by January 31?
- +$0.50at 0.975Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:32 | Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $3.31 |
| 01-31 13:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999628 | $20.41 |
| 01-30 12:53 | Will Opendoor reach $9.25 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.84 |
| 01-30 12:49 | Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.997999977 | $16.87 |
| 01-30 12:05 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $37.75 |
| 12-30 08:50 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999724 | $17.50 |
| 12-30 00:44 | Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $18.87 |
| 12-29 20:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999835 | $53.07 |
| 10-31 15:17 | Will Z.ai have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $21.27 |
| 09-29 09:52 | Russian strike on Poland by September 30? | BUY | 0.9949999606 | $18.20 |
| 09-29 01:30 | Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.998 | $15.87 |
| 09-29 01:11 | Will XRP dip to $1.80 in September? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.06 |
| 09-28 20:40 | Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $16.38 |
| 09-28 20:38 | Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? | BUY | 0.9979999662 | $15.34 |
| 08-31 09:17 | Netanyahu out by August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $10.07 |