0xfc3715d9661d66c6a14739b3ffd6601a513cec40
- Realised P&L
- $0.25
- Volume
- $15.31
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $7.33
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration20.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.670 | 1.000 | $1.49 | +$0.49 |
| Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.875 | $1.39 | +$0.39 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.770 | 0.825 | $1.07 | +$0.07 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.730 | $1.06 | +$0.06 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · No | 0.590 | 0.585 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.330 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.375 | $0.49 | −$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 11:23 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 03:23 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 19:20 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 10:03 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.25 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 20:30 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 01:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 01:55 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 17:41 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |