m.gringo
0xfaa1a630a1d1cd0dfad7bd5def26aad40ff1bf41
- Realised P&L
- $150.18
- Volume
- $14.4k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $29.59
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample40 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration78.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.244 | 0.182 | $23.15 | −$7.85 |
| Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.115 | $4.03 | +$0.17 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow by July 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.505 | $2.32 | −$1.68 |
| Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? · Yes | 0.364 | 0.055 | $0.09 | −$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$52.83at 0.653Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?
- +$44.59at 0.738Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
- +$43.75at 0.092Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$25.14at 0.292Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$22.86at 0.270US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 13:51 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.27 | $6.16 |
| 08-07 13:45 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $1.65 |
| 08-06 04:52 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.02 |
| 08-06 04:50 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $8.81 |
| 08-03 04:45 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $5.10 |
| 08-02 13:02 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.1736781114 | $25.00 |
| 07-31 06:10 | Will Ukraine target Moscow by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.00 |
| 07-30 05:12 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 05:12 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $5.67 |
| 07-27 19:14 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899998861 | $5.00 |
| 07-27 09:50 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8799999842 | $40.00 |
| 07-23 11:30 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6570853482 | $70.00 |
| 07-23 07:49 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1979999861 | $10.00 |
| 07-23 07:48 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6313144923 | $38.42 |
| 07-23 07:48 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.6339265467 | $25.72 |