0xf746F38c6DCC651E2E5Be450DA2FCf81921F411C-1771536834736
0xf746f38c6dcc651e2e5be450da2fcf81921f411c
- Realised P&L
- $25.97
- Volume
- $20.9k
- Markets traded
- 101
- Open portfolio
- $71.26
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded101
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.557 | 0.195 | $31.55 | −$58.65 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes | 0.006 | 0.004 | $18.43 | −$5.57 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.079 | $8.43 | +$0.43 |
| Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.165 | $4.68 | −$0.32 |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.042 | $4.60 | −$0.40 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.056 | $2.77 | +$0.77 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.095 | $0.46 | −$0.74 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.031 | $0.34 | −$0.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$91.20at 0.050Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$54.85at 0.070Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?
- +$20.69at 0.590US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$20.25at 0.0072026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
- +$18.40at 0.140Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 12:25 | Haiti elections delayed again? | SELL | 0.00738378 | $1.48 |
| 08-02 10:35 | Will Iran target a Arab country on August 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.1761252211 | $5.00 |
| 07-31 10:10 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.975 | $19.50 |
| 07-30 15:42 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $4.00 |
| 07-29 19:24 | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0456317056 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 17:01 | Haiti elections delayed again? | BUY | 0.0249066499 | $5.00 |
| 07-23 12:52 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.00 |
| 07-19 21:43 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0859999286 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 21:29 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.321 | $5.38 |
| 07-19 11:26 | Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.00 |
| 07-10 16:04 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.0403940888 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 00:20 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.00 |
| 07-10 00:19 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1789999567 | $3.00 |
| 07-10 00:17 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.391 | $12.53 |
| 07-04 07:35 | Will Sabrina Carpenter be one of Taylor Swift's bridesmaids? | SELL | 0.002900009 | $0.32 |