PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

CosmooKramer

0xf5ba73e13697872633ea3d20076a1d91135a5b5e

Realised P&L
$3.3k
Volume
$294.3k
Markets traded
326
Open portfolio
$15.9k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded326
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · No0.9200.981$2.0k+$121.24
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.9050.925$1.9k+$40.00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7670.795$1.6k+$56.10
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0250.030$1.5k+$296.90
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 · Yes0.7810.780$1.2k$2.11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · No0.9311.000$999.50+$68.83
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes0.9040.984$983.50+$79.50
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No0.8710.915$915.15+$44.04
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? · No0.5960.685$687.12+$89.19
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.4800.460$459.50$20.46
Will John Rutherford be the FL-05 Republican nominee? · Yes0.9400.966$451.31+$11.90
Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No0.8600.875$437.50+$7.70
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8200.855$342.00+$14.00
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2790.278$277.50$1.50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.6280.565$225.96$25.14

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 02:42Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.92$920.00
08-01 17:33Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?BUY0.85$42.50
08-01 17:01Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.75$750.00
08-01 15:33Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?BUY0.82$8.20
08-01 15:01Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?BUY0.85$34.00
07-31 23:37Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?BUY0.84$8.40
07-31 19:12Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?SELL0.89$5.34
07-31 19:07Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?SELL0.15$2.42
07-31 19:07Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?SELL0.9$0.88
07-31 19:03Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?BUY0.998$635.73
07-31 16:01U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?BUY0.461$4.61
07-31 15:52Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?SELL0.035$3.50
07-31 15:50Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?BUY0.16$16.00
07-30 18:12Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati RedsBUY0.53$16.96
07-30 00:34Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.76$380.00