NicoleHooper7742
0xf53cce164b2da5aa9a7fd79f8f1db4ba2d3700ac
- Realised P&L
- $-31.67
- Volume
- $185.8k
- Markets traded
- 208
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded208
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration56.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.259 | 0.883 | $760.69 | +$537.69 |
| Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? · $60 | 0.700 | 0.771 | $363.14 | +$33.44 |
| Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? · No | 0.178 | 0.587 | $224.63 | +$156.46 |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? · No | 0.830 | 0.590 | $2.36 | −$0.96 |
| Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.675 | $0.68 | +$0.20 |
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.150 | $0.30 | −$0.94 |
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.145 | $0.14 | −$0.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$409.11at 0.310CDC issues Level 3 warning by December 31?
- +$299.63at 0.201San Francisco Dons vs. San Diego Toreros
- +$240.72at 0.320Dundee FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 1.5
- +$182.70at 0.370Partizan vs. BC Dubai
- +$135.24at 0.570Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-11 19:11 | Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | SELL | 0.65 | $505.05 |
| 04-11 17:36 | Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | SELL | 0.57 | $108.30 |
| 04-11 17:35 | Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"? | SELL | 0.56 | $52.08 |
| 04-11 09:41 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.28 | $19.88 |
| 04-11 05:53 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $378.40 |
| 04-11 04:14 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $382.70 |
| 04-11 03:50 | Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - 19? | BUY | 0.83 | $644.91 |
| 04-11 00:26 | Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.259 | $223.00 |
| 04-09 23:42 | Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30? | SELL | 0.88 | $483.12 |
| 04-09 10:39 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $97.11 |
| 04-09 10:34 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.83 | $590.96 |
| 04-08 02:24 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $688.07 |
| 04-08 01:20 | Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by April 30? | BUY | 0.75 | $411.75 |
| 04-08 00:14 | Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? | BUY | 0.178 | $68.17 |
| 03-31 01:39 | Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering? | SELL | 0.59 | $587.05 |