SpodermanS
0xf0cfaee284dcc42be36f8c50963a9510f7b15acc
- Realised P&L
- $-13.86
- Volume
- $924.02
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $36.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration59.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? · Yes | 0.317 | 0.700 | $21.51 | +$11.77 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.053 | $8.10 | −$2.59 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.235 | $1.93 | +$0.70 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.160 | 0.145 | $1.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · No | 0.520 | 0.675 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.155 | $1.07 | −$0.93 |
| Will Twice release a song in 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.613 | $0.68 | −$0.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.88at 0.400Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?
- +$7.43at 0.070Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
- +$4.75at 0.040Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
- +$2.71at 0.425Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs
- +$2.57at 0.280Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 00:03 | Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? | BUY | 0.2899999275 | $2.00 |
| 06-26 23:19 | Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 06-21 18:02 | Games Total: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.05 | $0.13 |
| 06-21 14:39 | Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 06-20 21:08 | Games Total: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 06-20 20:49 | Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | SELL | 0.59 | $8.43 |
| 06-20 17:00 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 06-20 15:36 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | SELL | 0.999 | $1.69 |
| 06-20 13:35 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | BUY | 0.429999828 | $1.00 |
| 06-19 23:26 | Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 06-19 23:24 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.999 | $2.17 |
| 06-19 22:54 | Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $0.13 |
| 06-19 17:54 | Games Total: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 06-19 17:50 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | SELL | 0.9 | $1.20 |
| 06-18 22:32 | Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |