mcphearson99
0xedc4e9604396800bac6f5f28958f117b6dd8be57
- Realised P&L
- $-204.47
- Volume
- $17.7k
- Markets traded
- 164
- Open portfolio
- $203.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded164
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$55.50at 0.145Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?
- +$40.36at 0.160Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?
- +$31.15at 0.139Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$25.29at 0.260SCOTUS bars counting mail ballots after election day?
- +$20.83at 0.310Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 21:52 | Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30? | BUY | 0.0442431305 | $10.29 |
| 08-04 21:52 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.49 | $10.00 |
| 08-03 03:46 | Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6289640199 | $10.14 |
| 08-02 06:23 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? | BUY | 0.28 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 06:22 | Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | BUY | 0.043 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 06:21 | US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | BUY | 0.59 | $9.99 |
| 08-02 05:39 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | BUY | 0.31 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 05:39 | Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | BUY | 0.65 | $10.00 |
| 08-02 05:39 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0665973863 | $10.09 |
| 07-31 21:46 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 07-29 23:00 | Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.067798995 | $10.12 |
| 07-28 13:12 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | SELL | 0.0179200055 | $7.79 |
| 07-28 03:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29? | BUY | 0.023 | $5.06 |
| 07-27 14:44 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599702047 | $10.16 |
| 07-27 14:44 | Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30? | BUY | 0.07 | $10.00 |