PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Sign in

Traders

mcphearson99

0xedc4e9604396800bac6f5f28958f117b6dd8be57

Realised P&L
$-204.47
Volume
$17.7k
Markets traded
164
Open portfolio
$203.87

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded164
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration7.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? · No0.5900.895$15.16+$5.17
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No0.3100.450$14.52+$4.52
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30? · No0.6200.885$14.27+$4.27
Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026? · No0.6290.780$12.57+$2.43
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? · No0.5900.730$12.37+$2.37
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No0.5500.655$11.91+$1.91
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? · No0.5900.645$10.93+$0.93
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · No0.6500.705$10.84+$0.85
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · No0.4900.515$10.51+$0.51
Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? · No0.5600.570$10.17+$0.18
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? · No0.6500.645$9.92$0.08
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · No0.5700.545$9.27$0.42
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan? · No0.2800.255$9.11$0.89
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? · No0.2400.210$8.75$1.25
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · No0.3600.255$7.08$2.92

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-04 21:52Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?BUY0.0442431305$10.29
08-04 21:52US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?BUY0.49$10.00
08-03 03:46Will Oregon reach D4 (Exceptional Drought) by August 31, 2026?BUY0.6289640199$10.14
08-02 06:23Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit Japan?BUY0.28$10.00
08-02 06:22Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?BUY0.043$10.00
08-02 06:21US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?BUY0.59$9.99
08-02 05:39Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?BUY0.31$10.00
08-02 05:39Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?BUY0.65$10.00
08-02 05:39Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?BUY0.0665973863$10.09
07-31 21:46US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?BUY0.64$10.00
07-29 23:00Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?BUY0.067798995$10.12
07-28 13:12Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?SELL0.0179200055$7.79
07-28 03:55Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?BUY0.023$5.06
07-27 14:44Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 28, 2026?BUY0.0599702047$10.16
07-27 14:44Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?BUY0.07$10.00