0xea12383c2cc0fc07d8c436a3ad1eb7362699b618
- Realised P&L
- $1.52
- Volume
- $28.10
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $10.20
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes | 0.654 | 1.000 | $3.06 | +$1.06 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? · Down | 0.340 | 1.000 | $2.94 | +$1.94 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? · No | 0.320 | 0.470 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.905 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.350 | 0.360 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.145 | $0.33 | −$0.67 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.165 | $0.21 | −$0.79 |
| Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.59at 0.630Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
- +$-1.00at 0.300Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 02:11 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.33999983 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:09 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 09:49 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 01:47 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4399998064 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 17:42 | Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 09:42 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 21:08 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 11:49 | Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 01:50 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 17:02 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.63 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 14:50 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 02:01 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.498999505 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 17:37 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |