0xe6e023bed2f8b80626d94800526cabf93ee9d72a
- Realised P&L
- $3.98
- Volume
- $88.88
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $18.01
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.785 | $5.61 | +$3.61 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.973 | $4.42 | +$2.42 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? · Up | 0.530 | 0.715 | $2.70 | +$0.70 |
| Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.460 | $2.00 | +$0.00 |
| Will China's CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.685 | $1.90 | −$0.10 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No | 0.779 | 0.547 | $1.41 | −$0.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.88at 0.340Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.77at 0.410Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$0.82at 0.710Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 05:06 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 21:02 | Allstate (ALL) Q2 property-liability combined ratio <88%? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 12:42 | Will China's CPI increase by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026? | BUY | 0.7199997408 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 04:41 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4399999296 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 20:18 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3399999422 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 11:59 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 10:47 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7789999427 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 01:25 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2799999048 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 01:23 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 17:05 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 03:47 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |
| 07-31 19:44 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 11:43 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.80 |
| 07-30 22:53 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 31? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.08 |
| 07-30 14:17 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |