0xe3cd3838927817ffa317c175fcc0780ab97535d5
- Realised P&L
- $15.24
- Volume
- $67.56
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $25.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar22.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.815 | $4.70 | +$2.51 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? · No | 0.250 | 0.470 | $4.12 | +$1.93 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · No | 0.240 | 0.415 | $3.79 | +$1.60 |
| Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.440 | $3.44 | +$1.25 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.895 | $3.11 | +$0.92 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.800 | 0.955 | $2.61 | +$0.42 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.450 | $2.59 | +$0.40 |
| Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.230 | $1.44 | −$0.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.79at 0.550SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7?
- +$1.79at 0.550Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.34at 0.620Will Trump say "Manufacturing" during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$1.13at 0.660WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 7?
- +$0.85at 0.720Will Trump say "Transgender" during Friday roundtable?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 15:48 | Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.3499999441 | $2.19 |
| 08-08 07:10 | Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.2799999284 | $2.19 |
| 08-07 23:04 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.19 |
| 08-07 14:54 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.6599999578 | $2.19 |
| 08-07 06:39 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.5499999121 | $2.19 |
| 08-06 21:35 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during Friday roundtable? | BUY | 0.7199999737 | $2.19 |
| 08-06 13:02 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.19 |
| 08-06 05:02 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.19 |
| 08-05 20:56 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999514 | $2.19 |
| 08-05 12:38 | Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5499999121 | $2.19 |
| 08-05 04:34 | Will Trump say "Manufacturing" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.6199999037 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 20:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999514 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 12:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.6299999799 | $2.19 |