Gr820incher
0xdd66c65d6ae2e31d727685f41cc9950a55782ec1
- Realised P&L
- $-864.55
- Volume
- $20.7k
- Markets traded
- 121
- Open portfolio
- $188.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded121
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No | 0.750 | 0.925 | $131.79 | +$24.91 |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? · No | 0.787 | 0.885 | $26.55 | +$2.95 |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.925 | $9.25 | +$1.45 |
| Will Donald Trump visit California in 2026? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.758 | $7.58 | −$1.32 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.905 | $6.79 | +$0.94 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? · Yes | 0.778 | 0.205 | $5.10 | −$14.26 |
| Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.155 | $1.55 | −$3.55 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.12at 0.150Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$41.84at 0.510Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$35.76at 0.686Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?
- +$33.17at 0.440Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$18.00at 0.820US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-02 02:03 | Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $29.40 |
| 05-02 02:03 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.8 | $80.00 |
| 05-02 02:02 | Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $16.40 |
| 04-23 05:52 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.85 | $20.00 |
| 04-05 00:18 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.35 | $89.74 |
| 04-05 00:16 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $15.40 |
| 04-05 00:16 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 04-05 00:15 | Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $18.00 |
| 04-05 00:14 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $16.80 |
| 04-05 00:04 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $158.46 |
| 03-29 21:12 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $25.80 |
| 03-29 21:12 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.8598333333 | $25.79 |
| 03-28 03:09 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $7.57 |
| 03-28 03:08 | Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $6.60 |
| 03-28 03:07 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.967 | $0.97 |