0xdbc2de3135c201ddf9866abfa26ffc553d9a6fb9
- Realised P&L
- $0.33
- Volume
- $38.52
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $9.96
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.835 | $3.48 | +$2.48 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.690 | 0.905 | $1.31 | +$0.31 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.495 | $1.30 | +$0.30 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.932 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.905 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.790 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.105 | $0.44 | −$0.56 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? · Down | 0.520 | 0.052 | $0.10 | −$0.90 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.56at 0.390Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $900 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$1.50at 0.400S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6?
- +$0.27at 0.790Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$-0.02at 0.510Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 04:21 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 7? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 03:01 | Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 06:46 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 10:43 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.7099999432 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 02:42 | Will Trump say "Waitress" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 18:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 09:50 | Will Trump say "Warren Buffett" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.2799998432 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 01:47 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $900 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 17:43 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 09:42 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.7899999921 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 23:00 | Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 11:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 01:47 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 16:51 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 08-01 01:51 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $1.00 |