0xdb3cb5e6ab154e17d7bb40b023b02008dcf0833e
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $29.7k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $882.08
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar5.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.705 | $799.77 | +$62.39 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.415 | $60.65 | +$3.65 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.055 | $16.18 | −$33.82 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.192 | $5.47 | −$4.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.757Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
- +$805.02at 0.109Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$595.18at 0.637Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
- +$419.78at 0.830Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
- +$285.10at 0.747Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 07:27 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3899999962 | $57.00 |
| 07-28 00:46 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.29 | $49.42 |
| 07-27 13:40 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.6799999946 | $115.89 |
| 07-24 14:23 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999998 | $737.38 |
| 07-19 12:09 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 07-15 20:28 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.124 | $64.25 |
| 07-14 20:23 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.0412435592 | $15.24 |
| 07-11 11:32 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0599999994 | $94.85 |
| 07-11 11:32 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $100.44 |
| 07-01 02:32 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3339999983 | $123.42 |
| 07-01 02:31 | Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? | SELL | 0.17 | $49.75 |
| 07-01 02:30 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? | SELL | 0.0714400797 | $83.18 |
| 06-30 23:56 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $2.1k |
| 06-30 23:43 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1929999981 | $100.00 |
| 06-30 23:41 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1089999991 | $100.00 |