0xd81d5bd30cb4db424df95f24c8e074343b47531b
- Realised P&L
- $60.65
- Volume
- $10.0k
- Markets traded
- 37
- Open portfolio
- $139.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded37
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample29 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.094 | $64.72 | +$24.73 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.021 | $32.91 | −$86.09 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.655 | $16.11 | +$1.11 |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.087 | 0.021 | $11.62 | −$36.48 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? · No | 0.470 | 0.430 | $9.15 | −$0.85 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.265 | $2.79 | +$0.79 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.138 | 0.095 | $1.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by August 31? · Yes | 0.067 | 0.017 | $0.51 | −$1.49 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$307.14at 0.140Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
- +$118.04at 0.282Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
- +$53.23at 0.593Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
- +$47.63at 0.296XRP Up or Down - July 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET
- +$42.50at 0.540WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:36 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0581280762 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 17:35 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | SELL | 0.64 | $19.69 |
| 08-02 17:34 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0580559495 | $20.00 |
| 08-02 17:34 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6499999935 | $20.00 |
| 07-28 00:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | SELL | 0.042 | $1.75 |
| 07-28 00:15 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.062204058 | $10.21 |
| 07-27 11:50 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $16.36 |
| 07-25 23:20 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.1181186667 | $106.31 |
| 07-25 19:41 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1304608865 | $106.78 |
| 07-25 19:40 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | SELL | 0.7215089531 | $107.58 |
| 07-25 19:36 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999879 | $9.00 |
| 07-24 20:42 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on July 24? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.05 |
| 07-24 15:28 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on July 24? | BUY | 0.7199999965 | $50.00 |
| 07-24 15:27 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on July 24? | SELL | 0.023095007 | $2.14 |
| 07-24 14:53 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on July 24? | BUY | 0.5391447531 | $50.00 |