Etanol
0xd399ba186f89721f79e0a72bfa6c9babd2e13f46
- Realised P&L
- $12.3k
- Volume
- $65.77M
- Markets traded
- 267
- Open portfolio
- $635.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded267
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.143 | 0.250 | $214.40 | +$91.95 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.835 | $167.00 | +$9.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.477 | 0.495 | $157.23 | +$5.66 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%? · Yes | 0.074 | 0.304 | $53.84 | +$40.74 |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? · Yes | 0.815 | 0.994 | $26.04 | +$4.67 |
| Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.011 | $13.85 | −$5.66 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.101 | $3.22 | +$2.26 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.3kat 0.004Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.7kat 0.002Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.2kat 0.020Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.2kat 0.013Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.2kat 0.001Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 19:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 07-08 18:03 | Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.12 | $1.54 |
| 07-07 17:36 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw? | SELL | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 07-07 17:12 | Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw? | BUY | 0.34 | $34.00 |
| 07-05 20:06 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.066 | $20.22 |
| 07-03 19:25 | Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.001 | $100.00 |
| 07-03 00:53 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.001 | $8.78 |
| 07-03 00:22 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.006 | $4.92 |
| 07-01 21:53 | Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01? | SELL | 0.081 | $8.10 |
| 07-01 15:36 | Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.55 | $549.99 |
| 07-01 15:17 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.004 | $28.08 |
| 06-29 22:39 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.004 | $3.61 |
| 06-29 21:19 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.004 | $93.07 |
| 06-29 20:03 | Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | BUY | 0.35 | $1.75 |
| 06-28 02:04 | Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.004 | $442.42 |