Arcone
0xcafe629b52e3ca102605a368beb36412c449e0f3
- Realised P&L
- $-180.22
- Volume
- $14.4k
- Markets traded
- 196
- Open portfolio
- $7.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded196
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)10.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.025 | $2.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.085 | $1.70 | −$0.30 |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? · Down | 0.400 | 0.655 | $1.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.042 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on August 6? · Up | 0.500 | 0.470 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Plovdiv 2: Samuele Pieri vs Gerard Campana Lee · Samuele Pieri | 0.170 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.50at 0.080Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$16.18at 0.110Heat vs. Celtics
- +$12.29at 0.140LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)
- +$10.83at 0.055Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August?
- +$8.09at 0.110Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 15:27 | Plovdiv 2: Samuele Pieri vs Gerard Campana Lee | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 06:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 06:54 | LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Trial Group | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 06:53 | LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 3-4 Challenge Group | BUY | 0.3099998295 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 02:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET | BUY | 0.619999969 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 02:04 | National Bank Open: Alycia Parks vs Alexandra Eala | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 02:03 | National Bank Open: Valentin Royer vs Tommy Paul | BUY | 0.0419999612 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 02:03 | Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 02:02 | St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Yankees | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 00:19 | Bitcoin Up or Down - August 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 00:10 | LoL: NRG Esports vs Cupid Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers League Group Stage | BUY | 0.3899998479 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 00:09 | SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 00:08 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 00:06 | National Bank Open: Renata Zarazua vs Leylah Fernandez | BUY | 0.1 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 00:06 | Seattle Storm vs. New York Liberty | BUY | 0.2 | $1.00 |