JasonHall6641
0xcacf8f4b3135fd0b125eac3044068b5d6717115e
- Realised P&L
- $2.0k
- Volume
- $270.0k
- Markets traded
- 225
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded225
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? · No | 0.880 | 1.000 | $1.6k | +$191.40 |
| Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.258 | 0.842 | $1.3k | +$921.55 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.105 | $100.17 | −$252.88 |
| Weed rescheduled by June 30? · No | 0.800 | 1.000 | $65.00 | +$13.00 |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? · No | 0.922 | 0.977 | $42.97 | +$2.40 |
| Canva IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.045 | $2.16 | −$8.40 |
| Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.060 | $0.12 | −$0.54 |
| CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$187.11 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$562.72at 0.332Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$468.96at 0.150Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia win on 2026-03-05?
- +$421.39at 0.447Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April?
- +$341.65at 0.300Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026?
- +$269.63at 0.280Will Sorry, Baby win Best Screenplay at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-27 10:03 | Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.035 | $17.40 |
| 04-21 05:05 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | SELL | 0.88 | $10.56 |
| 04-21 03:29 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $23.80 |
| 04-21 03:27 | Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $354.96 |
| 04-13 16:24 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $447.18 |
| 04-13 16:23 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | SELL | 0.87 | $321.78 |
| 04-13 13:27 | Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in April? | BUY | 0.447 | $340.61 |
| 04-13 12:32 | Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $779.52 |
| 04-13 10:03 | Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.054 | $1.08 |
| 04-13 10:02 | Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.054 | $4.37 |
| 04-13 09:44 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $453.42 |
| 04-13 04:55 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 27, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $126.79 |
| 04-13 04:17 | Canada recession before 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $306.00 |
| 04-13 04:16 | Canada recession before 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $174.00 |
| 04-12 23:40 | Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.1 | $59.80 |