PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

tonton69

0xca903676c5f5561885a38a75109ba10d05a8813a

Realised P&L
$-239.72
Volume
$10.1k
Markets traded
43
Open portfolio
$79.00

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded43
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration22.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
CautionSettled sample26 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration76.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0600.043$60.28$24.41
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.1700.155$9.12$0.88
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes0.3400.055$4.85$25.15
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · No0.3500.295$4.21$0.79
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1300.026$0.54$2.12
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00$5.00
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes0.0480.000$0.00$133.99
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · No0.1860.000$0.00$5.00
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? · No0.1300.000$0.00$5.00
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? · No0.2900.000$0.00$5.00
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · No0.3160.000$0.00$5.00
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yes0.0100.000$0.00$5.00
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00$5.00
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00$4.00
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · Yes0.2710.000$0.00$15.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-10 00:29Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.0597490204$69.00
06-13 09:09Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.0859737144$8.69
06-10 14:38Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.002$1.00
06-10 14:38Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?BUY0.0102795348$5.00
06-10 14:38Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.0672973271$5.00
06-10 14:38Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.3499999615$5.00
06-10 14:38Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?BUY0.0227146924$2.00
05-21 20:12Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?BUY0.1699999871$10.00
05-03 18:43Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?BUY0.023759065$20.00
05-03 18:42Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026BUY0.29899999$20.00
05-03 18:41Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026?BUY0.1099999815$5.00
05-03 18:40Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?BUY0.1299999789$5.00
05-03 18:39Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?BUY0.3399999694$4.00
05-03 18:38SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?BUY0.1862744813$5.00
05-03 18:38SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?BUY0.289999964$5.00