PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Erasmus.

0xc6587b11a2209e46dfe3928b31c5514a8e33b784

Realised P&L
$-44.6k
Volume
$144.50M
Markets traded
762
Open portfolio
$370.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded762
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration71.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · No0.7420.925$263.8k+$52.2k
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No0.9050.965$71.5k+$4.4k
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · No0.8270.905$24.6k+$2.1k
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.3750.115$4.2k$9.6k
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.4840.475$2.4k$48.97
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.1250.042$2.2k$4.4k
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · No0.9100.972$1.1k+$71.68
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? · Yes0.0900.025$630.61$1.7k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? · Yes0.4840.001$90.90$87.9k
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes0.6510.223$36.11$69.40
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.1500.135$1.30$0.14
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? · No0.4200.000$0.00$4.2k
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? · Yes0.2700.000$0.00$656.39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00$166.55
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? · Yes0.0120.000$0.00$516.05

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-29 17:25Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7563603095$46.1k
07-29 17:25Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7560256979$13.1k
07-29 17:12Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7445783622$39.0k
07-29 17:12Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7469079007$11.8k
07-29 17:08Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7459906367$61.8k
07-29 17:08Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7486531896$10.7k
07-29 16:49Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7441065167$52.9k
07-29 16:49Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7423260508$3.7k
07-29 15:33Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7349994716$183.7k
07-29 15:27Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.7349860089$183.7k
07-28 23:30Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.2349429055$352.33
07-28 23:30Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.24$4.4k
07-28 22:31Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.249274749$17.1k
07-28 22:31Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.2483143692$2.8k
07-28 19:46Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY0.2298929138$11.5k