meklaren
0xc4e12d1921aacbc65557951ca0c6c7a0cdaa5c0c
- Realised P&L
- $447.02
- Volume
- $72.2k
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $327.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No | 0.569 | 0.770 | $123.20 | +$32.20 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.205 | 0.205 | $78.80 | −$0.13 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.041 | $30.37 | −$1.12 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.052 | 0.041 | $24.30 | −$6.70 |
| Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.042 | $21.00 | +$3.50 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · No | 0.180 | 0.435 | $18.35 | +$10.76 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.085 | $17.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.800 | 0.945 | $9.45 | +$1.45 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.021 | $5.19 | −$3.59 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.046 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$26.72 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$193.33at 0.278Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$159.80at 0.228Maduro out by February 28, 2026?
- +$124.07at 0.110Will Trump visit China by April 30?
- +$114.20at 0.295Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$63.84at 0.222Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 14:55 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.042 | $21.54 |
| 06-23 08:34 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.063 | $12.60 |
| 06-11 17:32 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL | 0.055 | $4.67 |
| 06-11 17:32 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.19 | $28.50 |
| 06-09 16:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $19.00 |
| 06-09 16:53 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.018 | $1.69 |
| 05-25 11:01 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | SELL | 0.002 | $1.05 |
| 04-17 15:35 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.05 |
| 04-05 06:19 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 04-04 12:18 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? | BUY | 0.021 | $4.20 |
| 04-02 05:16 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 03-21 11:23 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? | BUY | 0.2766666667 | $4.15 |
| 03-17 05:10 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.69 | $25.87 |
| 03-06 19:20 | Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 02-28 07:22 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.996 | $19.92 |