0xc3105c7f5790a69fc220cee06808987fbb5f0df2
- Realised P&L
- $1.67
- Volume
- $92.99
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $12.70
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.725 | $3.37 | +$1.37 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.255 | $2.32 | +$0.32 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.755 | $2.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? · No | 0.770 | 0.835 | $2.17 | +$0.17 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? · Yes | 0.264 | 0.255 | $1.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.108 | $0.72 | −$1.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.17at 0.480Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.86at 0.380Will Trump say "Stop Calling Me" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.40at 0.590Will Warsh say "Restrictive" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.34at 0.560Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?
- +$0.81at 0.710Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:16 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:15 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999454 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:15 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July? | BUY | 0.2639999229 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6899997205 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:13 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 23:49 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 15:47 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in July? | BUY | 0.7699997035 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:38 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:36 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.479999952 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:08 | Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 02:05 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199998953 | $1.59 |
| 07-31 18:03 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-31 10:02 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999626 | $1.53 |
| 07-30 01:45 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 17:31 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6699999498 | $1.87 |