0xbdfd37f198b5bad8dcf813971725722ab8cbb773
- Realised P&L
- $-1.38
- Volume
- $46.47
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $6.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)30.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.601 | 0.953 | $1.58 | +$0.58 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.932 | $1.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.790 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
| Will Trump say "Transgender" during Friday roundtable? · No | 0.720 | 0.615 | $0.85 | −$0.15 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.505 | $0.81 | −$0.19 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.095 | $0.41 | −$0.59 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.730 | 0.165 | $0.23 | −$0.77 |
| Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.035 | $0.11 | −$0.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.17at 0.240Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$1.70at 0.370SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$1.38at 0.420Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$0.52at 0.660Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-07 11:05 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6009999447 | $1.00 |
| 08-07 03:02 | Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 18:52 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during Friday roundtable? | BUY | 0.719999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 10:49 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.239999856 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 10:48 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 01:00 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 6? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 16:55 | Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4699998778 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 08:50 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 00:23 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 16:22 | Will Trump say "Beautiful" 15+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4199998236 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 08:21 | Will Trump say "Through the Roof" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.3699998631 | $1.00 |
| 08-04 00:20 | Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $74 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999012 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 16:17 | Will Atmos Energy (ATO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 08-03 08:14 | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $345 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.29999982 | $1.00 |
| 08-02 21:05 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2299998275 | $1.00 |