0xb72847e8bfa842690d9be5ced039e841130768ac
- Realised P&L
- $-3.84
- Volume
- $59.84
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $14.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.845 | $4.83 | +$2.83 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.605 | $2.20 | +$0.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.825 | $2.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.650 | $1.86 | −$0.14 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.490 | 0.395 | $1.61 | −$0.39 |
| Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.600 | 0.265 | $0.88 | −$1.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.145 | $0.49 | −$0.94 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No | 0.410 | 0.009 | $0.04 | −$1.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.40at 0.590Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$1.07at 0.650Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$0.00at 0.499Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 04:04 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 19:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 11:57 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.34999993 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 11:42 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4899999534 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 03:28 | Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 19:27 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.4099999446 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 11:27 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199999413 | $1.43 |
| 08-01 02:33 | Will Figma (FIG) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.699999755 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 18:30 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.4989999935 | $1.99 |
| 07-31 10:29 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 07-30 14:30 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |
| 07-29 21:48 | Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" 10+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.6499997374 | $1.98 |
| 07-29 05:29 | Will Warsh say "Bet" or "Betting" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.6699999498 | $1.87 |
| 07-28 11:57 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 27 to July 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998884 | $1.92 |
| 07-28 02:37 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.53 |