0xb653a00f9851de31621b022e4a85f12e94a7942e
- Realised P&L
- $6.89
- Volume
- $101.33
- Markets traded
- 29
- Open portfolio
- $9.93
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded29
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.835 | $2.98 | +$0.98 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No | 0.640 | 0.900 | $2.81 | +$0.81 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.525 | $1.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.450 | $1.18 | −$0.82 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.135 | $1.17 | −$0.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.52at 0.210Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$2.65at 0.430Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$2.65at 0.430Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
- +$1.69at 0.540Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 17:29 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999675 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 09:29 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 01:28 | Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 17:28 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 09:27 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $600 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 01:01 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:59 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6499999025 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 06:49 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 22:46 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 13:55 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:37 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 20:37 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999689 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 12:36 | Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.80 |
| 07-31 02:06 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $1.23 |
| 07-30 00:59 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |