0xb3a3c56b8f639f94f23a8af94af144aecdf78866
- Realised P&L
- $-6.84
- Volume
- $249.70
- Markets traded
- 44
- Open portfolio
- $13.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded44
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.875 | $2.54 | +$0.54 |
| Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.560 | 0.565 | $2.02 | +$0.02 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · No | 0.830 | 0.825 | $1.99 | −$0.01 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.630 | 0.895 | $1.42 | +$0.42 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.680 | 0.915 | $1.35 | +$0.35 |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? · Yes | 0.351 | 0.325 | $1.29 | −$0.10 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.303 | $1.22 | +$0.98 |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.135 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.215 | $0.86 | −$0.14 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.076 | $0.08 | −$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.44at 0.450Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?
- +$1.35at 0.160Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.08at 0.480Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026?
- +$1.00at 0.500Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?
- +$0.94at 0.680Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-08 12:56 | Will Rodri finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 12:48 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 22:05 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.66 | $0.97 |
| 08-06 21:54 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | BUY | 0.8299997053 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 21:43 | Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 00:30 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $1.22 |
| 07-24 20:41 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.56 | $2.95 |
| 07-24 00:02 | Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? | BUY | 0.1399998824 | $1.00 |
| 07-17 19:47 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.579999826 | $1.00 |
| 07-14 17:14 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.376 | $2.35 |
| 07-11 19:00 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.051 | $0.10 |
| 07-11 18:58 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | SELL | 0.05184579 | $0.55 |
| 07-11 18:53 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027? | BUY | 0.058 | $0.58 |
| 07-07 22:24 | Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.54 | $1.00 |
| 07-04 22:09 | Paraguay vs. France: France O/U 1.5 | BUY | 0.4799998272 | $1.00 |